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  • GERry: A code to optimise the hunt for the electromagnetic counter-parts to gravitational wave events

    The Univ. of Warwick (United Kingdom); Monash Univ. (Australia); Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom); Univ. of Leicester (United Kingdom); Armagh Observatory and Planetarium (United Kingdom); National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand (Thailand); Univ. of Turku (Finland); The Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom); Univ. of Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (Spain); et al. (Observatory Operations: Strategies, Processes, and Systems X, 2024-07-01)
    The search for the electromagnetic counterparts to Gravitational Wave (GW) events has been rapidly gathering pace in recent years thanks to the increasing number and capabilities of both gravitational wave detectors and wide field survey telescopes. Difficulties remain, however, in detecting these counterparts due to their inherent scarcity, faintness and rapidly evolving nature. To find these counterparts, it is important that one optimizes the observing strategy for their recovery. This can be difficult due to the large number of potential variables at play. Such follow-up campaigns are also capable of detecting hundreds or potentially thousands of unrelated transients, particularly for GW events with poor localization. Even if the observations are capable of detecting a counterpart, finding it among the numerous contaminants can prove challenging. Here we present the Gravitational wave Electromagnetic RecovRY code (GERRY) to perform detailed analysis and survey-agnostic quantification of observing campaigns attempting to recover electromagnetic counterparts. GERRY considers the campaign's spatial, temporal and wavelength coverage, in addition to Galactic extinction and the expected counterpart light curve evolution from the GW 3D localization volume. It returns quantified statistics that can be used to: determine the probability of having detected the counterpart, identified the most promising sources, and assessed and refine strategy. Here we demonstrate the code to look at the performance and parameter space probed by current and upcoming wide-field surveys such as GOTO and VRO.
  • Prospects for a survey of the galactic plane with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

    Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwa-no-ha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582, Japan; ETH Zürich, Institute for Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Otto-Stern-Weg 5, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland; INFN and Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente (DSFTA), Sezione di Fisica, Via Roma 56, 53100 Siena, Italy; Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris Cité, CEA, CNRS, AIM, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France; FSLAC IRL 2009, CNRS/IAC, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain; University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Gallalee Hall, Box 870324 Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0324, U.S.A.; Université Côte d'Azur, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, France; Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, CNRS/IN2P3, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France; Departament de Física Quàntica i Astrofísica, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, IEEC-UB, Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028, Barcelona, Spain; Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, 18008, Granada, Spain; Institute for Computational Cosmology and Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; Instituto de Física Teórica UAM/CSIC and Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, c/ Nicolás Cabrera 13-15, Campus de Cantoblanco UAM, 28049 Madrid, Spain; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Libertador Bernardo O'Higgins 340, Santiago, Chile; et al. (Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2024-10-01)
    Approximately one hundred sources of very-high-energy (VHE) gamma rays are known in the Milky Way, detected with a combination of targeted observations and surveys. A survey of the entire Galactic Plane in the energy range from a few tens of GeV to a few hundred TeV has been proposed as a Key Science Project for the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO). This article presents the status of the studies towards the Galactic Plane Survey (GPS). We build and make publicly available a sky model that combines data from recent observations of known gamma-ray emitters with state-of-the-art physically-driven models of synthetic populations of the three main classes of established Galactic VHE sources (pulsar wind nebulae, young and interacting supernova remnants, and compact binary systems), as well as of interstellar emission from cosmic-ray interactions in the Milky Way. We also perform an optimisation of the observation strategy (pointing pattern and scheduling) based on recent estimations of the instrument performance. We use the improved sky model and observation strategy to simulate GPS data corresponding to a total observation time of 1620 hours spread over ten years. Data are then analysed using the methods and software tools under development for real data. Under our model assumptions and for the realisation considered, we show that the GPS has the potential to increase the number of known Galactic VHE emitters by almost a factor of five. This corresponds to the detection of more than two hundred pulsar wind nebulae and a few tens of supernova remnants at average integral fluxes one order of magnitude lower than in the existing sample above 1 TeV, therefore opening the possibility to perform unprecedented population studies. The GPS also has the potential to provide new VHE detections of binary systems and pulsars, to confirm the existence of a hypothetical population of gamma-ray pulsars with an additional TeV emission component, and to detect bright sources capable of accelerating particles to PeV energies (PeVatrons). Furthermore, the GPS will constitute a pathfinder for deeper follow-up observations of these source classes. Finally, we show that we can extract from GPS data an estimate of the contribution to diffuse emission from unresolved sources, and that there are good prospects of detecting interstellar emission and statistically distinguishing different scenarios. Thus, a survey of the entire Galactic plane carried out from both hemispheres with CTAO will ensure a transformational advance in our knowledge of Galactic VHE source populations and interstellar emission.
  • Prospects for γ-ray observations of the Perseus galaxy cluster with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

    Department of Physics, Tokai University, 4-1-1, Kita-Kaname, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa 259-1292, Japan; Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwa-no-ha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582, Japan; Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris Cité, CEA, CNRS, AIM, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France; FSLAC IRL 2009, CNRS/IAC, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain; University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Gallalee Hall, Box 870324 Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0324, U.S.A.; Université Côte d'Azur, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, France; Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, CNRS/IN2P3, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France; Departament de Física Quàntica i Astrofísica, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, IEEC-UB, Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028, Barcelona, Spain; Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, 18008, Granada, Spain; Instituto de Física Teórica UAM/CSIC and Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, c/ Nicolás Cabrera 13-15, Campus de Cantoblanco UAM, 28049 Madrid, Spain; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Libertador Bernardo O'Higgins 340, Santiago, Chile; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Delegación Coyoacán, 04510 Ciudad de México, Mexico; et al. (Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2024-10-01)
    Galaxy clusters are expected to be both dark matter (DM) reservoirs and storage rooms for the cosmic-ray protons (CRp) that accumulate along the cluster's formation history. Accordingly, they are excellent targets to search for signals of DM annihilation and decay at γ-ray energies and are predicted to be sources of large-scale γ-ray emission due to hadronic interactions in the intracluster medium (ICM). In this paper, we estimate the sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to detect diffuse γ-ray emission from the Perseus galaxy cluster. We first perform a detailed spatial and spectral modelling of the expected signal for both the DM and the CRp components. For each case, we compute the expected CTA sensitivity accounting for the CTA instrument response functions. The CTA observing strategy of the Perseus cluster is also discussed. In the absence of a diffuse signal (non-detection), CTA should constrain the CRp to thermal energy ratio X <SUB>500</SUB> within the characteristic radius R <SUB>500</SUB> down to about X <SUB>500</SUB> &lt; 3 × 10<SUP>-3</SUP>, for a spatial CRp distribution that follows the thermal gas and a CRp spectral index α<SUB>CRp</SUB> = 2.3. Under the optimistic assumption of a pure hadronic origin of the Perseus radio mini-halo and depending on the assumed magnetic field profile, CTA should measure α<SUB>CRp</SUB> down to about Δα<SUB>CRp</SUB> ≃ 0.1 and the CRp spatial distribution with 10% precision, respectively. Regarding DM, CTA should improve the current ground-based γ-ray DM limits from clusters observations on the velocity-averaged annihilation cross-section by a factor of up to ∼ 5, depending on the modelling of DM halo substructure. In the case of decay of DM particles, CTA will explore a new region of the parameter space, reaching models with τ <SUB>χ</SUB> &gt; 10<SUP>27</SUP> s for DM masses above 1 TeV. These constraints will provide unprecedented sensitivity to the physics of both CRp acceleration and transport at cluster scale and to TeV DM particle models, especially in the decay scenario.
  • New Wolf-Rayet wind yields and nucleosynthesis of Helium stars

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, N. Ireland; Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire ST5 5BG, UK; Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa 277-8583, Japan; School of Physics, Engineering and Technology, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK; Zentrum für Astronomie der Universität Heidelberg, Astronomisches Rechen-Institut, Mönchhofstr 12-14, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany; Higgins, Erin R.; Vink, Jorick S.; Hirschi, Raphael; Laird, Alison M.; Sander, Andreas A. C. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024-09-01)
    Strong metallicity-dependent winds dominate the evolution of core He-burning, classical Wolf-Rayet (cWR) stars, which eject both H and He-fusion products such as $^{14}$N, $^{12}$C, $^{16}$O, $^{19}$F, $^{22}$Ne, and $^{23}$Na during their evolution. The chemical enrichment from cWRs can be significant. cWR stars are also key sources for neutron production relevant for the weak s-process. We calculate stellar models of cWRs at solar metallicity for a range of initial Helium star masses (12-50 $\rm M_{\odot }$), adopting recent hydrodynamical wind rates. Stellar wind yields are provided for the entire post-main sequence evolution until core O-exhaustion. While literature has previously considered cWRs as a viable source of the radioisotope $^{26}$Al, we confirm that negligible $^{26}$Al is ejected by cWRs since it has decayed to $^{26}$Mg or proton-captured to $^{27}$Al. However, in Paper I, we showed that very massive stars eject substantial quantities of $^{26}$Al, among other elements including N, Ne, and Na, already from the zero-age-main-sequence. Here, we examine the production of $^{19}$F and find that even with lower mass-loss rates than previous studies, our cWR models still eject substantial amounts of $^{19}$F. We provide central neutron densities (N$_{n}$) of a 30 $\rm M_{\odot }$ cWR compared with a 32 $\rm M_{\odot }$ post-VMS WR and confirm that during core He-burning, cWRs produce a significant number of neutrons for the weak s-process via the $^{22}$Ne($\alpha$,n)$^{25}$Mg reaction. Finally, we compare our cWR models with observed [Ne/He], [C/He], and [O/He] ratios of Galactic WC and WO stars.
  • Kilonova Seekers: the GOTO project for real-time citizen science in time-domain astrophysics

    Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, Vesilinnantie 5, Turku FI-20014, Finland; Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX, UK; Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH, UK; School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Clayton VIC 3800, Australia; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH, UK; Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain; School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, UK; National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, 260 Moo 4, T. Donkaew, A. Maerim, Chiangmai 50180, Thailand; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, Vesilinnantie 5, Turku FI-20014, Finland; et al. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024-09-01)
    Time-domain astrophysics continues to grow rapidly, with the inception of new surveys drastically increasing data volumes. Democratized, distributed approaches to training sets for machine learning classifiers are crucial to make the most of this torrent of discovery - with citizen science approaches proving effective at meeting these requirements. In this paper, we describe the creation of and the initial results from the Kilonova Seekers citizen science project, built to find transient phenomena from the GOTO telescopes in near real-time. Kilonova Seekers launched in 2023 July and received over 600 000 classifications from approximately 2000 volunteers over the course of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O4a observing run. During this time, the project has yielded 20 discoveries, generated a 'gold-standard' training set of 17 682 detections for augmenting deep-learned classifiers, and measured the performance and biases of Zooniverse volunteers on real-bogus classification. This project will continue throughout the lifetime of GOTO, pushing candidates at ever-greater cadence, and directly facilitate the next-generation classification algorithms currently in development.
  • The maximum black hole mass at solar metallicity

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, BT61 9DG, Armagh, Northern Ireland, UK; Vink, Jorick S.; Sabhahit, Gautham N.; Higgins, Erin R. (Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2024-08-01)
    We analyse the current knowledge and uncertainties in detailed stellar evolution and wind modelling to evaluate the mass of the most massive stellar black hole (BH) at solar metallicity. Contrary to common expectations that it is the most massive stars that produce the most massive BHs, we find that the maximum M<SUB>BH</SUB><SUP>Max</SUP> ≃ 30 ± 10 M<SUB>⊙</SUB> is found in the canonical intermediate range between M<SUB>ZAMS</SUB> ≃ 30 and 50 M<SUB>⊙</SUB> instead. The prime reason for this seemingly counter-intuitive finding is that very massive stars (VMS) have increasingly high mass-loss rates that lead to substantial mass evaporation before they expire as stars and end as lighter BHs than their canonical O-star counterparts.
  • Dark matter line searches with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

    Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwa-no-ha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582, Japan; ETH Zürich, Institute for Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Otto-Stern-Weg 5, 8093 Zürich, Switzerland; INFN and Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente (DSFTA), Sezione di Fisica, Via Roma 56, 53100 Siena, Italy; Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris Cité, CEA, CNRS, AIM, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France; FSLAC IRL 2009, CNRS/IAC, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain; University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Gallalee Hall, Box 870324 Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0324, U.S.A.; Université Côte d'Azur, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Laboratoire Lagrange, France; Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, CNRS/IN2P3, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France; Departament de Física Quàntica i Astrofísica, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, IEEC-UB, Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028, Barcelona, Spain; Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía-CSIC, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, 18008, Granada, Spain; Institute for Computational Cosmology and Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Av. Libertador Bernardo O'Higgins 340, Santiago, Chile; et al. (Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2024-07-01)
    Monochromatic gamma-ray signals constitute a potential smoking gun signature for annihilating or decaying dark matter particles that could relatively easily be distinguished from astrophysical or instrumental backgrounds. We provide an updated assessment of the sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to such signals, based on observations of the Galactic centre region as well as of selected dwarf spheroidal galaxies. We find that current limits and detection prospects for dark matter masses above 300 GeV will be significantly improved, by up to an order of magnitude in the multi-TeV range. This demonstrates that CTA will set a new standard for gamma-ray astronomy also in this respect, as the world's largest and most sensitive high-energy gamma-ray observatory, in particular due to its exquisite energy resolution at TeV energies and the adopted observational strategy focussing on regions with large dark matter densities. Throughout our analysis, we use up-to-date instrument response functions, and we thoroughly model the effect of instrumental systematic uncertainties in our statistical treatment. We further present results for other potential signatures with sharp spectral features, e.g. box-shaped spectra, that would likewise very clearly point to a particle dark matter origin.
  • X-Shooting ULLYSES: Massive Stars at Low Metallicity

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, UK; Department of Physics &amp; Astronomy, University of Sheffield, UK; Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, USA; Centre for Astrobiology (CSIC-INTA), Torrejón de Ardoz, Madrid, Spain; Montpellier Universe and Particles Laboratory, Montpellier University, France; Las Campanas Observatory, Carnegie Observatories, Chile; Institute for Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physics, University of Montreal, Canada; Penn State Scranton, Dunmore, PA, USA; Astronomy Centre, Heidelberg University, Germany; et al. (The Messenger, 2024-03-01)
    The Hubble Space Telescope has devoted 500 orbits to observing 250 massive stars with low metallicity in the ultraviolet (UV) range within the framework of the ULLYSES program. The X-Shooting ULLYSES (XShootU) project enhances the legacy value of this UV dataset by providing high-quality optical and near-infrared spectra, which are acquired using the wide-wavelength- coverage X-shooter spectrograph at ESO's Very Large Telescope. XShootU emphasises the importance of combining UV with optical spectra for the consistent determination of key stellar parameters such as effective temperature, surface gravity, luminosity, abundances, and wind characteristics including mass-loss rates as a function of metallicity. Since uncertainties in these parameters have implications across various branches of astrophysics, the data and modelling generated by the XShootU project are poised to significantly advance our understanding of massive stars at low metallicity. This is particularly crucial for confidently interpreting James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) data of the earliest stellar generations, making XShootU a unique resource for comprehending individual spectra of low-metallicity stars.
  • Predicting the heaviest black holes below the pair instability gap

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium (AOP), Armagh, College Hill, BT61 9DB, UK; School of Maths and Physics, Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland, University Road, BT7 1NN, UK; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium (AOP), Armagh, College Hill, BT61 9DB, UK; Winch, Ethan R. J.; Vink, Jorick S.; Higgins, Erin R.; Sabhahitf, Gautham N. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024-04-01)
    Traditionally, the pair instability (PI) mass gap is located between 50 and 130 M<SUB>⊙</SUB>, with stellar mass black holes (BHs) expected to 'pile up' towards the lower PI edge. However, this lower PI boundary is based on the assumption that the star has already lost its hydrogen (H) envelope. With the announcement of an 'impossibly' heavy BH of 85 M<SUB>⊙</SUB> as part of GW 190521 located inside the traditional PI gap, we realized that blue supergiant (BSG) progenitors with small cores but large hydrogen envelopes at low metallicity (Z) could directly collapse to heavier BHs than had hitherto been assumed. The question of whether a single star can produce such a heavy BH is important, independent of gravitational wave events. Here, we systematically investigate the masses of stars inside the traditional PI gap by way of a grid of 336 detailed MESA stellar evolution models calculated across a wide parameter space, varying stellar mass, overshooting, rotation, semiconvection, and Z. We evolve low Z stars in the range 10<SUP>-3</SUP> &lt; Z/Z<SUB>⊙</SUB> &lt; Z<SUB>SMC</SUB>, making no prior assumption regarding the mass of an envelope, but instead employing a wind mass-loss recipe to calculate it. We compute critical carbon-oxygen and helium core masses to determine our lower limit to PI physics, and we provide two equations for M<SUB>core</SUB> and M<SUB>final</SUB> that can also be of use for binary population synthesis. Assuming the H envelope falls into the BH, we confirm the maximum BH mass below PI is M<SUB>BH</SUB> ≃ 93.3 M<SUB>⊙</SUB>. Our grid allows us to populate the traditional PI gap, and we conclude that the distribution of BHs above the traditional boundary is not solely due to the shape of the initial mass function, but also to the same stellar interior physics (i.e. mixing) that which sets the BH maximum.
  • LISA Galactic Binaries with Astrometry from Gaia DR3

    Hamburger Sternwarte, University of Hamburg, Gojenbergsweg 112, 21029 Hamburg, Germany; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Tech University, P.O. Box 41051, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA; Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Straße 1, 85741 Garching, Germany; Institute for Gravitational Wave Astronomy, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK; NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35811, USA; Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics (Albert Einstein Institute), Callinstrasse 38, 30167 Hannover, Germany; Leibniz Universität Hannover, Institut für Gravitationsphysik, Callinstrasse 38, 30167 Hannover, Germany; Université de Paris, CNRS, Astroparticule et Cosmologie, 75013 Paris, France; IRFU, CEA, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of Astrophysics/IMAPP, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands; South African Astronomical Observatory, P.O. Box 9, Observatory, 7935, Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Astronomy &amp; Inter-University Institute for Data Intensive Astronomy, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa; Department of Physics, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Université de Paris, CNRS, Astroparticule et Cosmologie, 75013 Paris, France; Department of Astrophysics/IMAPP, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands; SRON, Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Niels Bohrweg 4, 2333 CA Leiden, The Netherlands; Institute of Astronomy, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium; European Space Agency, European Space Astronomy Centre, Camino Bajo del Castillo s/n, 28692 Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid, Spain; et al. (The Astrophysical Journal, 2024-03-01)
    Galactic compact binaries with orbital periods shorter than a few hours emit detectable gravitational waves (GWs) at low frequencies. Their GW signals can be detected with the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Crucially, they may be useful in the early months of the mission operation in helping to validate LISA's performance in comparison to prelaunch expectations. We present an updated list of 55 candidate LISA-detectable binaries with measured properties, for which we derive distances based on Gaia Data Release 3 astrometry. Based on the known properties from electromagnetic observations, we predict the LISA detectability after 1, 3, 6, and 48 months using Bayesian analysis methods. We distinguish between verification and detectable binaries as being detectable after 3 and 48 months, respectively. We find 18 verification binaries and 22 detectable sources, which triples the number of known LISA binaries over the last few years. These include detached double white dwarfs, AM CVn binaries, one ultracompact X-ray binary, and two hot subdwarf binaries. We find that across this sample the GW amplitude is expected to be measured to ≈10% on average, while the inclination is expected to be determined with ≈15° precision. For detectable binaries, these average errors increase to ≈50% and ≈40°, respectively.
  • Predicting the Heaviest Black Holes below the Pair Instability Gap

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium (AOP), Armagh, College Hill, BT61 9DB; School of Maths and Physics, Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland, University Road, BT7 1NN; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium (AOP), Armagh, College Hill, BT61 9DB; Winch, Ethan R. J.; Vink, Jorick S.; Higgins, Erin R.; Sabhahit, Gautham N. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024-02-01)
    Traditionally, the pair instability (PI) mass gap is located between 50 and 130 M<SUB>⊙</SUB>, with stellar mass black holes (BHs) expected to pile up towards the lower PI edge. However, this lower PI boundary is based on the assumption that the star has already lost its hydrogen (H) envelope. With the announcement of an impossibly heavy BH of 85 M<SUB>⊙</SUB> as part of GW 190521 located inside the traditional PI gap, we realised that blue supergiant (BSG) progenitors with small cores but large Hydrogen envelopes at low metallicity (Z) could directly collapse to heavier BHs than had hitherto been assumed. The question of whether a single star can produce such a heavy BH is important, independent of gravitational wave events. Here, we systematically investigate the masses of stars inside the traditional PI gap by way of a grid of 336 detailed MESA stellar evolution models calculated across a wide parameter space, varying stellar mass, overshooting, rotation, semi-convection, and Z. We evolve low Z stars in the range 10<SUP>-3</SUP> &lt; Z/Z<SUB>⊙</SUB> &lt; Z<SUB>SMC</SUB>, making no prior assumption regarding the mass of an envelope, but instead employing a wind mass loss recipe to calculate it. We compute critical Carbon-Oxygen and Helium core masses to determine our lower limit to PI physics, and we provide two equations for M<SUB>core</SUB> and M<SUB>final</SUB> that can also be of use for binary population synthesis. Assuming the H envelope falls into the BH, we confirm the maximum BH mass below PI is M<SUB>BH</SUB> ≃ 93.3 M<SUB>⊙</SUB>. Our grid allows us to populate the traditional PI gap, and we conclude that the distribution of BHs above the gap is not solely due to the shape of the initial mass function (IMF), but also to the same stellar interior physics (i.e. mixing) that which sets the BH maximum.
  • Multimessenger science opportunities with mHz gravitational waves

    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Columbia University; Leiden University; Harvard University; The Pennsylvania State University; University of Cambridge; CITA, University of Toronto; California Institute of Technology; City University of New York/American Museum of Natural History; Princeton University; et al. (Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 2019-05-01)
    We review opportunities for multi-messenger science breakthroughs involving mHz gravitational waves with electromagnetic observations.
  • Exceptional outburst of the blazar CTA 102 in 2012: the GASP-WEBT campaign and its extension

    Astronomical Institute, St.-Petersburg State University, 198504 St.-Petersburg, Russia; Pulkovo Observatory, 196140 St.-Petersburg, Russia; INAF, Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino, via Osservatorio 20, I-10025 Pino Torinese, Italy; Astronomical Institute, St.-Petersburg State University, 198504 St.-Petersburg, Russia; Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, Boston, MA, 22015 USA; Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, Boston, MA, 22015 USA; Instituto de Astrofisíca de Andalucía, CSIC, E-18080 Granada, Spain; Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA; Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC), La Laguna, E-38200 Tenerife, Spain; Departamento de Astrofisica, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain; Pulkovo Observatory, 196140 St.-Petersburg, Russia; Institute of Astronomy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria; Astronomical Institute, St.-Petersburg State University, 198504 St.-Petersburg, Russia; Department of Physics and Institute for Plasma Physics, University of Crete, GR-71003 Heraklion, Greece; Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas, IESL, Voutes, GR-7110 Heraklion, Greece; et al. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2016-09-01)
    After several years of quiescence, the blazar CTA 102 underwent an exceptional outburst in 2012 September-October. The flare was tracked from γ-ray to near-infrared (NIR) frequencies, including Fermi and Swift data as well as photometric and polarimetric data from several observatories. An intensive Glast-Agile support programme of the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (GASP-WEBT) collaboration campaign in optical and NIR bands, with an addition of previously unpublished archival data and extension through fall 2015, allows comparison of this outburst with the previous activity period of this blazar in 2004-2005. We find remarkable similarity between the optical and γ-ray behaviour of CTA 102 during the outburst, with a time lag between the two light curves of ≈1 h, indicative of cospatiality of the optical and γ-ray emission regions. The relation between the γ-ray and optical fluxes is consistent with the synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) mechanism, with a quadratic dependence of the SSC γ-ray flux on the synchrotron optical flux evident in the post-outburst stage. However, the γ-ray/optical relationship is linear during the outburst; we attribute this to changes in the Doppler factor. A strong harder-when-brighter spectral dependence is seen both the in γ-ray and optical non-thermal emission. This hardening can be explained by convexity of the UV-NIR spectrum that moves to higher frequencies owing to an increased Doppler shift as the viewing angle decreases during the outburst stage. The overall pattern of Stokes parameter variations agrees with a model of a radiating blob or shock wave that moves along a helical path down the jet.
  • Constraining the progenitor evolution of GW 150914

    Armagh Observatory, and Planetarium, BT61 9DG Armagh, College Hill, Northern Ireland,; Vink, Jorick S. (High-mass X-ray Binaries: Illuminating the Passage from Massive Binaries to Merging Compact Objects, 2019-12-01)
    One of the largest surprises from the LIGO results regarding the first gravitational wave detection (GW 150914) was the fact the black holes (BHs) were heavy, of order 30 - 40 M<SUB>⊙</SUB>. The most promising explanation for this obesity is that the BH-BH merger occurred at low metallicity (Z): when the iron (Fe) contents is lower this is expected to result in weaker mass loss during the Wolf-Rayet (WR) phase. We therefore critically evaluate the claims for the reasons of heavy BHs as a function of Z in the literature. Furthermore, weaker stellar winds might lead to more rapid stellar rotation, allowing WR and BH progenitor evolution in a chemically homogeneous manner. However, there is as yet no empirical evidence for more rapid rotation amongst WR stars in the low Z environment of the Magellanic Clouds. Due to the intrinsic challenge of determining WR rotation rates from emission lines, the most promising avenue to constrain rotation-rate distributions amongst various WR subgroups is through the utilisation of their emission lines in polarised light. We thus provide an overview of linear spectro-polarimetry observations of both single and binary WRs in the Galaxy, as well as the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, at 50% and 20% of solar Z, respectively. Initial results suggest that the route of chemically homogeneous evolution (CHE) through stellar rotation is challenging, whilst the alternative of a post-LBV or common envelope evolution is more likely.
  • Natal molecular cloud of SNR Kes 41. Complete characterisation

    CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires, Argentina ; Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, UK; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; School of Computing Enginnering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Locked Bay 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Supan, L.; Castelletti, G.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Burton, M. G.; Wong, G. F.; et al. (Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2018-11-01)
    Using high-resolution data of the <SUP>12</SUP>CO and <SUP>13</SUP>CO (J = 1-0) line emission from the Mopra Southern Galactic Plane CO Survey in conjunction with neutral hydrogen observations from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey (SGPS) and mid-infrared Spitzer data, we have explored the large-scale environment of the supernova remnant Kes 41. On the basis of these data, we identified for the first time the parent cloud of Kes 41 in its whole extension and surveyed the HII regions, masers, and the population of massive young stellar objects in the cloud. The whole unveiled giant cloud, located at the kinematic distance of 12.0 ± 3.6 kpc, whose average total mass and size are 10-30 × 10<SUP>5</SUP> M<SUB>⊙</SUB> and 26', also shines in γ-rays, as revealed by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite. We determined a high average proton density 500-1000 cm<SUP>-3</SUP> in the large molecular complex, of which protons from the neutral atomic and ionised gases comprise only 15%.
  • Molecular shocks and the gamma-ray clouds of the W28 supernova remnant

    School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia; School of Physical Sciences, Adelaide University, Adelaide, 5005, Australia; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh, BT61 9DG, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom; International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Australia; Department of Astrophysics, Nagoya University, Furocho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8602, Japan; National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588, Japan; Maxted, Nigel; Rowell, Gavin; de Wilt, Phoebe; Burton, Michael; et al. (6th International Symposium on High Energy Gamma-Ray Astronomy, 2017-01-01)
    Interstellar medium clouds in the W28 region are emitting gamma-rays and it is likely that the W28 supernova remnant is responsible, making W28 a prime candidate for the study of cosmic-ray acceleration and diffusion. Understanding the influence of both supernova remnant shocks and cosmic rays on local molecular clouds can help to identify multi-wavelength signatures of probable cosmic-ray sources. To this goal, transitions of OH, SiO, NH<SUB>3</SUB>, HCO<SUP>+</SUP> and CS have complemented CO in allowing a characterisation of the chemically rich environment surrounding W28. This remnant has been an ideal test-bed for techniques that will complement arcminute-scale studies of cosmic-ray source candidates with future GeV-PeV gamma-ray observations.
  • Unidentified γ-ray emission towards the SNR Kes 41 revisited

    CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires, Argentina ; Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina; CONICET - Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires, Argentina; Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh, BT61 9DG, UK; Supan, L.; Castelletti, G.; Supanitsky, A. D.; Burton, M. G. (Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2018-11-01)
    Kes 41 is one of the Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs) that are proposed to be physically linked to γ-ray emission at GeV energies. The nature of the γ-ray photons has been explained, but inconclusively, as hadronic collisions of particles accelerated at the SNR blast wave with target protons in an adjacent molecular clump. We performed an analysis of Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) data of about nine years to assess the origin of the γ-ray emission. To investigate this matter, we also used spectral modelling constraints from the physical properties of the interstellar medium towards the γ-ray emitting region along with a revised radio continuum spectrum of Kes 41 (α = -0.54 ± 0.10, S ∝ ν<SUP>α</SUP>). We demonstrate that the γ-ray fluxes in the GeV range can be explained through bremsstrahlung emission from electrons interacting with the surrounding medium. We also considered a model in which the emission is produced by pion decay after hadronic collisions, and confirm that this mechanism cannot be excluded.
  • Massive star winds and HMXB donors

    Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, Northern Ireland, UK, ; Institut für Physik und Astronomie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24/25, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany; Sander, Andreas A. C. (High-mass X-ray Binaries: Illuminating the Passage from Massive Binaries to Merging Compact Objects, 2019-12-01)
    Understanding the complex behavior of High Mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) is not possible without detailed information about their donor stars. While crucial, this turns out to be a challenge on multiple fronts. First, multi-wavelength spectroscopy is vital. As such systems can be highly absorbed, this is often already hard to accomplish. Secondly, even if the spectroscopic data is available, the determination of reliable stellar parameters requires sophisticated model atmospheres that accurately describe the outermost layers and the wind of the donor star.
  • A Study of the Interstellar Medium Towards the Unidentified Dark TeV γ-Ray Sources HESS J1614-518 and HESS J1616-508

    School of Physical Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh, BT61 9DG, Northern Ireland, UK; Department of Physics, University of Nagoya, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan; Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122, Australia; International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6845, Australia; Lau, J. C.; Rowell, G.; Voisin, F.; Braiding, C.; et al. (Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia, 2017-12-01)
    HESS J1614-518 and HESS J1616-508 are two tera-electron volt γ-ray sources that are not firmly associated with any known counterparts at other wavelengths. We investigate the distribution of interstellar medium towards the tera-electron volt γ-ray sources using results from a 7-mm-wavelength Mopra study, the Mopra Southern Galactic Plane CO Survey, the Millimetre Astronomer's Legacy Team-45 GHz survey and [C i] data from the HEAT telescope. Data in the CO(1-0) transition lines reveal diffuse gas overlapping the two tera-electron volt sources at several velocities along the line of sight, while observations in the CS(1-0) transition line reveal several interesting dense gas features. To account for the diffuse atomic gas, archival H i data was taken from the Southern Galactic Plane Survey. The observations reveal gas components with masses 10<SUP>3</SUP> to 10<SUP>5</SUP> M<SUB>⊙</SUB> and with densities 10<SUP>2</SUP> to 10<SUP>3</SUP> cm<SUP>-3</SUP> overlapping the two tera-electron volt sources. Several origin scenarios potentially associated with the tera-electron volt γ-ray sources are discussed in light of the distribution of the local interstellar medium. We find no strong convincing evidence linking any counterpart with HESS J1614-518 or HESS J1616-508.
  • Ammonia excitation imaging of shocked gas towards the W28 gamma-ray source HESS J1801-233

    School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia; School of Physical Sciences, Adelaide University, Adelaide 5005, Australia; School of Physics, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia; Armagh Observatory and Planetarium, College Hill, Armagh BT61 9DG, Northern Ireland, UK; International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth, Australia; Department of Astrophysics, Nagoya University, Furocho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8602, Japan; National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588, Japan; Maxted, Nigel I.; de Wilt, Phoebe; Rowell, Gavin P.; Nicholas, Brent P.; et al. (Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2016-10-01)
    We present 12 mm Mopra observations of the dense (&gt;10<SUP>3</SUP> cm<SUP>-3</SUP>) molecular gas towards the north-east of the W28 supernova remnant (SNR). This cloud is spatially well matched to the TeV gamma-ray source HESS J1801-233 and is known to be an SNR-molecular cloud interaction region. Shock-disruption is evident from broad NH<SUB>3</SUB> (1,1) spectral linewidths in regions towards the W28 SNR, while strong detections of spatially extended NH<SUB>3</SUB> (3,3), NH<SUB>3</SUB>(4,4) and NH<SUB>3</SUB>(6,6) inversion emission towards the cloud strengthen the case for the existence of high temperatures within the cloud. Velocity dispersion measurements and NH<SUB>3</SUB>(n,n)/(1,1) ratio maps, where n = 2, 3, 4 and 6, indicate that the source of disruption is from the side of the cloud nearest to the W28 SNR, suggesting that it is the source of cloud-disruption. Towards part of the cloud, the ratio of ortho to para-NH<SUB>3</SUB> is observed to exceed 2, suggesting gas-phase NH<SUB>3</SUB> enrichment due to NH<SUB>3</SUB> liberation from dust-grain mantles. The measured NH<SUB>3</SUB> abundance with respect to H<SUB>2</SUB> is ∼(1.2 ± 0.5) × 10<SUP>-9</SUP>, which is not high, as might be expected for a hot, dense molecular cloud enriched by sublimated grain-surface molecules. The results are suggestive of NH<SUB>3</SUB> sublimation and destruction in this molecular cloud, which is likely to be interacting with the W28 SNR shock.

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